Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast

  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: March 17 - 23, 2025


Increase of rainfall of 20-40mm is expected over Palawan, most of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over eastern part of Cagayan and Isabela, most parts of Bicol, Aklan, Capiz, Eastern Visayas, and most of Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over Apayao, the rest of Cagayan and Isabela, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, and the rest of Visayas;
•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Eastern Samar and Easter Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over the easternmost of Cagayan and Isabela, the rest of Eastern Visayas and Mindanao, Capiz, Aklan, Northern portions of Negros Occidental and Cebu, Southern Palawan, and Sorsogon;
•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Luzon.


Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to a high over the eastern portion of Caraga;
•Low to moderate over Southern Luzon and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao;
•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: March 17 - 23, 2025


Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon, while slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced for the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: March 17 - 23, 2025


Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: March 24 - 30, 2025


Increase of rainfall of 20-60mm is expected over some areas in Luzon and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over the rest of the country

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over CAR and most of Mindanao;
•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.


Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low to moderate over Mindanao;
•Low over the rest of Visayas and Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: March 24 - 30, 2025


Slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced over love while for the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: March 24 - 30, 2025


Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 13, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 14-20, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and western Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.


Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 13, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 21-27, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Panay Island, and northern part of Negros Island where above normal rainfall is expected.


Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in Luzon and western Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in western Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 13, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 28- Apr 10, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in southern Luzon and Central Visayas.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in Luzon, Central Visayas and Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 13, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 14-22, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern Palawan, Panay Island, Zamboanga Peninsula and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in western Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in Visayas and Mindanao.

GEFS Archive
NCEP Archive

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph