-
This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
-
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
-
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
-
Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
-
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
-
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: September 17, 2024
Week Validity: September 18-24, 2024
Increase of rainfall of more than 100mm is likely in most parts of Luzon except Palawan while rainfall deficit of more than 30mm is forecasted over Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: September 17, 2024
Week Validity: September 18-24, 2024
Near to slightly warmer average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: September 17, 2024
Week Validity: September 18-24, 2024
Southwest Monsoon affecting most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: September 17, 2024
Week Validity: September 25 - October 01, 2024
Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm is likely over the western sections of Northern and Central Luzon and Southern Mindanao while rainfall deficit of upto 100mm is likely for the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: September 17, 2024
Week Validity: September 25 - October 01, 2024
Near to slightly warmer average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: September 17, 2024
Week Validity: September 25 - October 01, 2024
Weak Southwest Monsoon affecting the western section of Luzon. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 12, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 13-19, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 12, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 20-26, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in eastern Visayas where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 12, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 10, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern & Central Luzon, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, Visayas and some areas in southern Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern & Central Luzon, and Zamboanga Peninsula while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern & Central Luzon, Samar provinces, and Zamboanga Peninsula while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 12, 2024
Week Validity: Sep 13-21, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and southwestern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and northern Caraga Region while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall conditions.